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S  0+ `` + =*  0T+ `  + ?*  0+ `  + ?*j  S A ??9w "  Nt + >?  eParpinelli TECNON  "v  ^f>Ad޽h @ ?Bouquet ̙33 Default Design {s   (     0/  qEuropean Petrochemical Industry  $   0D/   EPaper presented at Algerian Petrochemical Seminar 26th February 2001>F4 E   0/ y'John F. Wyatt, Parpinelli TECNON, Milan((f' H  0޽h ? ̙33P 0(  e  <Ģ/ West European Market for Petrochemicals Petrochemical Industry Restructuring Strength/Weakness of European Petrochemicals Drivers for the Future Market Growth Feedstock Refinery Integration Strategy/Positioning of Major Players Conclusionsxx?x xfff ?   f    0/; 'European Petrochemical Industry Outline.(} $' H  0޽h ? ̙33    @(* (  (X ( 0A?X ( 0P  X ( 0 F "X ( 0n *p X ( 0P F X ( 0 :0 X ( 0 pb X  ( 0 *p X  ( 0 " X  ( 0 0  X  ( 0 0 X  ( 0 X ( 0~ F X ( 0 @  ( </V }-Western Europe (countries indicated with )..- X ( 0 b ( </!  uPopulation : ~450 million&f X ( 0@ P X ( 0 ` X ( 0X ( 0~  H ( 0޽h ? ̙33 P(  x  <A ???l@ g  s d/? ԔԔ8c8c?,$0 y#European Chemicals v Total Market$U$$#&  3 r$/ 11ȜȜ?@@n  INDEX 1990 = 100$%U z{89Y  T/ <P h/`&LTOP 208.75* LLEFT 143.125 e Chemicals U fJKE  T/ `8 $h/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75  Total market* Uf JKEU  T/  M h/`&LTOP 208.75* LLEFT 143.125 aSteel UfJKEU  Td/  P h/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75 aPaper UfJKEZ  T$/ \ b0 h/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75 f Automotive U fJKEY  T/ PMh/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75 e Petroleum U fJKET  TD/ `h/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75 `1990 JKET  T/  8h/`* LLEFT 143.125&LTOP 208.75 `1998 JKE  Bd/n d ; q* European Datastream index&$0U   B$/G~HWs p  ` Asian Crisis  f    <Tx U500   <xf `  U100   <xV P  U200   <txF@ U300   <ԕx60 U400 H  0޽h ? ̙33 `,\(  , , 0x: _ Market Demand$  ] , 0x  wEuropean share of world petrochemicals demand is falling but Volume demand and market concentration is attractivePxP:$ $4$$w H , 0޽h ? ̙33( e(](p8;8'(  8 8 0xT _ Market Demand$   &x `0 b  8 0` p#"* 8 <x? /  n21   @` 8 <tx?/  n27   @` 8 <4x?@ /  u Polystyrene     @` 8 <x?%@ /  n25 f  @` 8 <x?%/  n29 f  @`  8 <Tx?`/  qBenzenef  @`  8 <x?  n24   @`  8 <x? n33   @`  8 <ԛx?@  v Polyethylene     @`  8 <4x?%@  n23 f  @` 8 <x?% n32 f  @` 8 <Tx?` rEthylene  f  @` 8 <x?/ b  n13   @` 8 <x?/ b  n17   @` 8 <Ԟx?@ / b  s Polyester     @` 8 <4x?%/ @ b  n13 f  @` 8 <x?/ %b  n22 f  @` 8 < }?`/ b  t Paraxylene  f   @` 8 <4!}?  n25   @` 8 <!}? n27   @` 8 <T"}?@  w Polypropylene   @` 8 <"}?%@  n28 f  @` 8 <#}?% n33 f  @` 8 <#}?` s Propylene  f   @` 8 <4$}?c  p2000   @` 8 <$}?c p1980   @` 8 <$}?@ c \    @` 8 <T%}?%c@  p2000 f  @`  8 <%}?c% p1980 f  @` !8 <&}?`c \ f   @` "8 <&}?@ 0 c tPolymers    @` #8 <'}?`0@ c Basic Petrochemicals f  @``B $8 0o ?`0@ 0`B %8 0o ?`b b `B &8 0o ?`0`c`B '8 0o ? 0 c`B (8 0o ?@ 0 0`B )8 0o ?`c``B *8 0o ? c `B +8 0o ?```B ,8 0o ?  `B -8 0o ?```B .8 0o ?  `B /8 0o ?``/ `B 08 0o ?  / `B 18 0o ?`/ `b `B 28 0o ? / b `B 38 0o ?b %b `B 48 0o ?%b @ b `B 58 0o ?@ b b `B 68 0o ?b b `B 78 0o ?b b  :8 0T(}@ {'West European share of World demand (%)((' H 8 0޽h ? ̙33* g*_*;0)(  0 0 0)}T _ Market Demand$  %j `0 b  00` p#"* R0 <t)}? /  n21   @` P0 <)}?/  n27   @` N0 <*}?@ /  u Polystyrene     @` L0 <*}?%@ /  n25 f  @` J0 <T+}?%/  n29 f  @` H0 <+}?`/  qBenzenef  @` D0 <,}?  n24   @` B0 <t,}? n33   @` @0 <}?@  v Polyethylene     @` >0 <}?%@  n23 f  @` <0 <D}?% n32 f  @` :0 <}?` rEthylene  f  @` 0 <d}?/ b  n13   @` 0 <Ĺ}?/ b  n17   @` 0 <}?@ / b  s Polyester     @` 0 <}?%/ @ b  n13 f  @` 0 <D}?/ %b  n22 f  @` 0 <}?`/ b  t Paraxylene  f   @` 0 <d}?  n25   @` 0 <ļ}? n27   @` 0 <}?@  w Polypropylene   @` 0 <}?%@  n28 f  @` 0 <D}?% n33 f  @` 0 <}?` s Propylene  f   @` 0 <d}?c  p2000   @` 0 <Ŀ}?c p1980   @`  0 <$}?@ c \    @`  0 <}?%c@  p2000 f  @`  0 <}?c% p1980 f  @`  0 <D}?`c \ f   @` 0 <}?@ 0 c tPolymers    @` 0 <}?`0@ c Basic Petrochemicals f  @``B 0 0o ?`0@ 0`B  0 0o ?`b b `B !0 0o ?`0`c`B '0 0o ? 0 c`B 0 0o ?@ 0 0`B 0 0o ?`c``B 0 0o ? c `B 0 0o ?```B 0 0o ?  `B 0 0o ?```B 0 0o ?  `B 0 0o ?``/ `B 0 0o ?  / `B 0 0o ?`/ `b `B 0 0o ? / b `B 0 0o ?b %b `B 0 0o ?%b @ b `B 0 0o ?@ b b `B 0 0o ?b b `B 0 0o ?b b X2 0 0`   0 <O~GH2 P p :   0 0dP~@ {'West European share of World demand (%)(('  0 <P~P  ~*Note coproduct monomer has lower decrease++* H 0 0޽h ?0 ̙33I <(  < < 0Q~: _ Market Demand$   < 0Q~  *Historical European market growth has exceeded macroeconomic growth and Indications are that petrochemical derivatives continue to penetrate European marketsPPF$ $U$$ H < 0޽h ? ̙33 OG (    0R~: _ Market Demand$    0S~E NBasic Petrochemicals - Europe  v World(( ' l  0A A??  A  <$T~_Q ^ Million tons   l  0A C?? 5  C  <T~0 @ ^ Million tons      <DU~6V  T1980    <U~@`  T2000    0dV~  z y' C2 C3 C6 PX(('    0$W~ F  y' C2 C3 C6 PX((' H  0޽h ? ̙33 A9 4(  4 4 0W~: _ Market Demand$   4 0X~E BThermoplastics - Europe  v World"" ! l 4 0A G??  G 4 <dY~_Q ^ Million tons   l 4 0A I?? 5  I 4 <$Z~0 @ ^ Million tons    4 <Z~6V  T1980   4 <Z~@`  T2000   4 0~  z x& PE PP PS PET''&   4 0~ F  x& PE PP PS PET''& H 4 0޽h ? ̙33i (    0~: cSupply and Demand$   0~  FEuropean SD balances have followed global cyclic trends Historical export posture characteristic of the 1980 s has disappeared Investment following mid 1990 s has been slow with resultant improvement in plant utilizationTP8 I ]   H  0޽h ? ̙33 g_(    6~ #European Supply and Demand Ethylene,$$ $# l  0A ??p   <t~pj ZCapacity    0Ԃ~F ` R F  XDemand   <~ p ^ Million tons   H  0޽h ? ̙33 h`(    6T~ $European Supply and Demand Propylene,%$ $$ l  0A ??p   <~pj ZCapacity    0t~F ` R F  XDemand   <4~ p ^ Million tons   H  0޽h ? ̙33 f^(    6~ "European Supply and Demand Benzene,#$$" l  0A ??p   <~ ZCapacity    0~F ` R F  XDemand   <Ԉ~ p ^ Million tons   H  0޽h ? ̙33 ia(    6~ %European Supply and Demand Paraxylene,&$ $% l  0A ??p   <T~ ZCapacity    0~F ` R F  XDemand   <~ p ^ Million tons   H  0޽h ? ̙33 JB(    0~  hIndustry Restructuring$   0~ip rEuropean petrochemicals through repeated rationalisation & restructuring has been moving from a : National,  balanced  operational structure To Product focussed, world scale regional manufacturing centre`cbP*c + $ =  H  0޽h ? ̙33R     hz(  hx h c $D~P  ~ 02 h T~33>?p  h Balanced operation Multi-product lines Small scale5533" h Zd~ >?@ A State Aid  " h Z$~ >?P  LRefinery Integration" h N~ >?0 m6 {CConsumer or semi-finished products - principally to domestic marketDDf"B h TDԔ?@ "B  h@ TD)? "B  h TD)?   "H h 0޽h ? ̙33   0d!(  dx d c $~P  ~  d ZD~ >? n%  S Sites were under single ownership refining and/or chemical origin minimise intermediates product flow maximise sales to consumer/processing sectors&qqf!Tf& t "v d Z~ >?# = BP : Baglan Bay(UK), Basf : Ludwigshaven(D), CdF : Carling(F), Montedison : Porto Marghera(I) PQU : Santo Andre(B), Repsol : Portollano(E) f "H d 0޽h ? ̙33   @l0(  lx l c $~P   ~ x l c $d~ ~ H l 0޽h ? ̙33"     P`J (  `2 ` T$~f>?0  t$ Common solutions "2 ` T~33>?0  aOptimum structure "B ` ZDԔ?P @ "B ` ZDԔ? P "B ` ZDԔ?0" ` Z~ >?^X gNational compromise " ` Zd~ >?j  dShort term gains "  ` N$~ >?P  J ` Condominiums    "B  `  `D)?@p"B  `@ ZDԔ? @0p"  ` Z~ >? cAsset stripping "  ` ND~ >?`  7Search for the Optimum Petrochemical Industry Structure887 " ` Z~ >?2  T?? "H ` 0޽h ? ̙33D `L(  L L 0!  hIndustry Restructuring$ | L 0!  Result Increased number of  interfaces between the upstream to downstream integrated chain.]$U$\ H L 0޽h ? ̙33 p@-(  @ @ 0"< jStrengths and Weaknesses$ # @ 0#!0  ; Strengths are Market Driven Weaknesses are Supply DrivenR<f$$f$; H @ 0޽h ? ̙33 (    0#@ [ Strengths  $    04$  Established Market Support world scale domestic investments Significant high technology/high value added sector Infrastructure Marketing expertise Distribution networks Storage & logistics support Headquarters Several international and regional major players| f`fHf1  H  0޽h ? ̙33D D(  D D 0$< \ Weaknesses  $   D 0T%  (Feedstock Limitations Major importer of naphtha in competition with Asia Fragmented Production Base Many manufacturing sites add to fixed and logistics costsNf5f= H D 0޽h ? ̙33 ZRH(  H H 0&  \ Weaknesses  $   H 0t&WP   Scale Average European capacities are approximately 65% of US Gulf Coast/Middle East plants Utility Costs Intervention by National governments still leading to non-competitive fiscal burden - but this is changing zfXfW H H 0޽h ? ̙33 ~ (     04'0 hDrivers for the Future$   6'`  RMarket Growth Feedstock Refinery Integration Strategy/Positioning of Major Players S0x2S fR H  0޽h ? ̙33f (    0T(0 hEuropean Market Growth$   <(0p  2European petrochemical demand is expected to grow on average at between 3.5% and 4.0% per year In all sectors, demand growth, between 2000 and 2010, exceeds projected investment in new capacity In addition to new ethylene and polymer capacity to satisfy domestic demand, significant  on-purpose production of propylene and paraxylene will be required:b`cfa H  0޽h ? ̙33 +k/(    0t)0 hEuropean Market Growth$ 'j ! k!#"*  <)?h ! m0.8  @`  <4*?@ h! m0.5f  @`  <*? @ ! m1.3f  @`  <T+? ! r Paraxylene     @`  <+?h   m0.4  @`  <,?@ h  m1.2f  @`  <t,? @  m1.6f  @`  <,?   oBenzene  @`  <4-?hl   m2.1  @`  <?@ l h  m3.7f  @`  <D?l @  m5.8f  @`  <?l   q Propylene     @`  <d?hl  m1.3  @`  <?@ hl  m4.2f  @`   <$?@ l  m5.5f  @`   <?l  pEthylene    @`   <D?hI oDelta  @`   <?@ Ih rCapacity  f  @`   <d?I@  pDemandf  @`  <?I T   @`Z  <$?I jIncremental Volume Growth 2000  2010 (Million tons)06'5  @`  <?I T   @``B  0o ?`B " 0o ?!!`B # 0o ?I`B ' 0o ?I`B @ 0o ?`B A 0o ?I`B C 0o ?I`B E 0o ?l `B K 0o ?l `B M 0o ?l `B S 0o ?l  `B U 0o ? `B [ 0o ?  `B ] 0o ? !`B c 0o ? !`B e 0o ?!@ !`B g 0o ?@ !h!`B i 0o ?h!!H  0޽h ? ̙33 ++H(    0D0 hEuropean Market Growth$ @x !  !#"*  <?h ! m0.3  @`  <? h! m1.8f  @`  <d? ! m2.1f  @`  <$? ! q Polyester     @`  <?h   m0.5  @`   <? h  m0.0f  @`   <D?  m0.5f  @`   <?   s Polystyrene     @`   <d?hl   m1.0  @`   <? l h  m2.8f  @`  <$?l  m3.8f  @`  <to?l   u Polypropylene   @`  <o?hl  m1.5  @`  <4p? hl  m3.4f  @`  <p? l  m4.9f  @`  <Tq?l  t Polyethylene     @`  <q?hI oDelta  @`  <tr? Ih rCapacity  f  @`  <r?I  pDemandf  @`  <4s?I T   @`Z  <s?I jIncremental Volume Growth 2000  2010 (Million tons)06'5  @`  <s?I T   @``B  0o ?`B  0o ?!!`B  0o ?I`B  0o ?I`B  0o ?`B  0o ?I`B   0o ?I`B ! 0o ?l `B " 0o ?l `B # 0o ?l `B $ 0o ?l  `B % 0o ? `B & 0o ?  `B ' 0o ? !`B ( 0o ? !`B ) 0o ?! !`B * 0o ? !h!`B + 0o ?h!!H  0޽h ? ̙33 $(  $ $ 0t, \ Feedstocks  $  ! $ 0u@BJ  oEurope imports ~50% of olefins feedstock requirements and competes strongly with Asia for available suppliespp$o H $ 0޽h ? ̙33  <(  l  0A y??m} yx  <A w??  w  0ux  hEthylene Variable Cost$   <v` p bEuropean Naphtha   <Tw  _ Saudi Propane    <x l p  ^ Saudi Ethane f    <tx YUS$/tonf H  0޽h ? ̙33]  T(  T T 04yP \ Feedstocks  $   T 0y  AResult Erosion of competitive position in export markets Drive to refinery/petrochemical integration Development of partnerships/commercial agreements for secure supplies^;Ps$3 - fF  H T 0޽h ? ̙33'   _(    By 0P     0Tz (  EEuropean petrochemical manufacturers have frequently changed positionFF$E   <zv   H  0޽h ? ̙336